Last year we wrote about our top ten tech tips for 2010. Re-reading our bit of crystal ball gazing I don’t think we were too far out in our predictions.
This year we’ve asked our team of experts to come up with their thoughts on what’s going to be big in 2011.
Location-based services become relevant
The simple check-in bubble will likely burst, with geo-based review, discovery and discount services taking its place (and actually delivering something genuinely useful).
Touchscreen computing goes mainstream
What Apple started with iPad, Google should take to the masses with Android; tablet computing will get its second growth spurt in 2011, but it won’t be via any Apple device.
Next-gen markup means much more mobile
HTML5 will put the onus on brands to take universal, mobile-ready access to their services seriously. Just having some sort of iPhone app won’t be enough for much longer, as other HTML5-ready smart phone brands continue their explosive growth of 2010 well into the new year.
Gaming everywhere
Social gaming should become ubiquitous by the end of the year, and have travelled well beyond the realm of just Facebook. Expect to see a number of key players competing in this space, with the boundary between browser and mobile becoming increasingly blurred, too.
I’m going for increasingly easy person-to-person electronic financial transactions, either through devices such as Square or a cheap, subscription-based online service. This will bypass the existing credit card companies and PayPal, who take too big a chunk of each transaction. The catalyst will be the next US Presidential Elections, with a system allowing large numbers of individuals to make small donations being of great value to both parties.
More and more mobile; Android 2.3 (codenamed ‘Gingerbread’) is going to support Near Field Communication (NFC). This is widely used in Japan already for payments effectively turning your phone into a credit card. Other manufacturers are bound to play catch up here and it really could be the push to make mobile payments really take off.
Apps heading back to the web; the launch of the Chrome Web Store brings a platform to sell and distribute web apps. Publishers seem particularly excited about this.
More sites creating pay walls or micro payment mechanisms. 2010 saw the acclaimed and already-successful massively multiplayer game Lord of the Rings Online switching from a subscription-based model to being completely free to play. Dumping their original subscription-only system, Turbine Studios (the game’s creator) instead introduced micropayments; instead of paying a monthly fee to get all the content up front, users can now play as much or as little as the like at no cost, but can optionally pay for better equipment and special content in-game. Turbine’s idea revolves around processing many more - but smaller – transactions, whilst significantly growing the game’s userbase by dropping the subscription charge—an approach that appears to be working spectacularly for the company. Expect other big entertainment companies and mediums to look at similar approaches in 2011.
Email campaigns drop in effectiveness, replaced with geo-located coupons and discount services (Groupon, etc.).
A general lean towards more reactive and reflexive sites, as opposed to clambering mammoths.
Random acts of kindness is a nice one. As companies spend more time monitoring what people are saying about them through channels like Twitter, there’s a greater opportunity to give back immediately and try to build brand value through genuine interactions that help an individual for no reason. For example, I could post something like, “My washing machine’s broken and is flooding my kitchen right now!” and one of the manufacturer’s customer service people could respond with, “Hi Lucie, that sounds awful. Call me directly on [number] and I’ll order you a new machine and send someone over to help clear up the mess!”
Trend Watching has some more ideas to look out for this year.
Facebook
For a week in November, 25% of all North American traffic was to Facebook – five times more than Google! They're integrating texts, chats and Facebook messages under their forth-coming ‘Messages’ service. I think more and more people will have their personal lives revolve around Facebook, and brands want to be where people are...
Facebook also integrated geo-location via Facebook Places in 2010. Will 2011 be the year geo-location finally takes off commercially?
Facebook are also set to launch their new 'Deals' and 'Credits' services imminently; when integrated with geo-location, could this all mean Facebook becomes a common currency? Eeek!
HTML 5 and CSS3
They’re both going to be huge, and become the standard in 2011. Where will that leave Adobe Flash?
Mobile
Transactions, searches—the numbers are skyrocketing and will only become much more prevalent in 2011.
Tablet computing
Large-screen touch devices – like the iPad and numerous Android tablets – are also going to be huge in 2011, and designs for websites will change massively to allow for touch interaction.
Internet TV
Connected TVs are appearing already. It's obvious really. The number of people watching TV with a laptop or iPad on their lap already shows there's a demand for interactive experiences. (59% of North Americans.) Could 2011 be the end of passive TV entertainment?
Open Data
I think we'll start to see more useful apps using open data to good effect. From tracking parcels by the minute to saving lives in Haiti by using satellites to locate refugee camps, open data could be a revolution.
Xbox Kinect
Really looking forward to seeing how people hack this body recognition device from Microsoft; expect to see some really clever commercial uses.
I think we’ll see an increase in the popularity of services that help to curate the best of the web. Consumers are drowning in content and feed readers alone simply make it easier to read more without actually solving the problem. These curation services will analyse the links being shared among your friends and networks, to find you the news you need without the crud.
I also think that 2011 will see companies urgently reviewing their information security policies. WikiLeaks is largely expected to release a large number of internal files from a major bank, which will act as a further wakeup call. So expect better use of encryption and more restrictions on what sites employees can visit.
For me, social commerce is going to start taking off; more opportunities to buy directly through services like Facebook, for example. Conversion rates tend to be much higher through the social channels; easyJet is a good example of a brand doing this well.
4G networks will improve video speeds on mobile, but this probably won’t lead to noticeably bigger turnover for paid-for video services. There’s so much free content out there already, and, due to typically small screen sizes, consumers will likely not be that bothered about having top quality video on their phones.